Mr Roos, is the traditional family dying out?

We meet Georges T. Roos in his cool old flat. This is where he lives with his two teenage children and where he also works. The conversation takes place at the dining table, the photos are taken in the living room, where there is a Playstation among the Corbusier armchairs and many books. We see: The researcher, who knows the megatrends of the future, is a man who can thoroughly enjoy the present.

Mr Roos, will the traditional family soon die out?

The family as a form of society is actually becoming considerably more diverse and differentiated than we already know today. A Danish study, for example, assumes that there are 37 different family forms. Perhaps a little too detailed, but the fact remains that families are becoming less and less homogeneous constructs.

Which family form did you notice in particular?

The Danish study mentioned above states that around 10 per cent of sperm donations are planned and carried out by single women from the outset. I see this as a further indication that the role of the father is unclear. Women have emancipated themselves over the last few decades. There is still a lack of future role models for men as fathers and partners.

«Role models for men as fathers and partners are missing.»

Georges T. Roos, futurologist

How will the role of women change in the coming years?

We already know that women are better educated than men of the same age. Well-educated women in particular are increasingly in demand in the labour market. This means that
women are delegating more and more educational and care work to schools, specialised staff and institutions. Strictly speaking, the role of women or mothers is thus moving closer to the original role of the father, who delegated family work to the mother. With the growing independence of women, such forms are becoming more and more socially accepted.

Keyword household: this is also an additional burden for many mothers and fathers. Will we have it a little easier in future?

That's my assumption. Automation will not stop at the household. There will be robots that take over many household chores. Service robots are on the rise, for example in the care sector. Robots are already being used in Japan to wash residents' hair in care homes. There will also be robots that do the cleaning for us. Then there is online retail and expanded services thanks to digital networking. In the future, we will not only order food online and have it delivered to our homes or pick it up at a pick-up station on the way home from the office. We will be able to have the entire menu customised or have kitchen appliances that can prepare a meal largely autonomously.

Will the social form of marriage still be relevant in the future?

The way families are organised will continue to change. Today, most children are born in a marriage. But the proportion of children born out of wedlock is already 20 per cent, which means that one in five children is not born into a traditional partnership. The age of first-time mothers is also continuing to rise. Women are becoming mothers later and later, men fathers later. Many marriages are divorced and men and women are entering into new partnerships. This and longevity mean that children have more and more social parents, i.e. are surrounded by people who have an emotional bond with the child. The fertility rate of 1.5 children per woman is below the reproduction rate - in other words, not even the father and mother are «reproducing». More and more adults are gathering around these few children. Like the cabbage that grows around the bean (laughs).

How does this role dynamic affect men?

The role of the father in the sense of a traditional breadwinner, who only looks after the children in the evenings or at weekends, is becoming less and less attractive. This means that the work situation for men is changing. It is still not easy for fathers to adjust or reduce their workload. Some men may feel reluctant to ask their employer for this, possibly for fear of not being understood. But something is undoubtedly happening. Companies would do well to take better account of the needs of employees in this specific phase of their lives so as not to lose the good people. After all, the better the qualifications, the greater the risk of moving to another, better employer.
You are talking about large companies.

But Switzerland is a country of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Reconciling work and family life does not seem to be at the top of the agenda there. That is true. Flexibility is more difficult for smaller companies. With 20 or 25 employees, it becomes complicated when a third of them only want to work 60 or 80 per cent.

Nevertheless, are you convinced that these new ways of living and working will prevail in Switzerland?

They cannot stop megatrends. Individualisation, demographic change, changing values and the changing role of women mentioned at the beginning are pushing in this direction.

And do we want a society with fewer and fewer children?

We now know that women in countries that have sufficient and good childcare and family support structures have more children than women in countries that support families purely with financial incentives. This means that the ability to reconcile work and family life is crucial. Studies also show that the better the family support facilities, the higher the fertility rate. And a lot has already been done, even if we in Switzerland are still a long way from Scandinavian conditions.

«The school must offer a kind of digital literacy.»

Georges T. Roos, futurologist

A lot has been done in terms of crèches, but the supply of supplementary school facilities is still quite meagre.

That is correct. Such solutions are imperative. Various drivers are reinforcing this trend. Firstly, the good education of women, secondly the shortage of skilled labour and thirdly the economic necessity of a second income.

Will it no longer work without the woman's income?

Future generations of earners will face major challenges. The demographic situation and the higher social security contributions plus the higher healthcare costs that have to be paid will no longer allow families to get by on just one income. This overall situation makes it clear that there is no getting around the need to develop supplementary school programmes.

What will the school look like in 2025?

Schools will not only take on a large proportion of care functions, they will also be strongly characterised by communication technology. This also characterises the transfer of knowledge. For example, how useful will it be in future to be able to draw all of Switzerland's rivers and lakes on a map if Google Maps provides us with this information in seconds on our smartphones? Knowledge is changing. Schools must therefore teach children how to deal with this digital knowledge, a kind of interactive literacy. It will therefore be less important to be able to correctly draw any body of water on a blind map, but it will be crucial to know what the major bodies of water are and in which direction they flow. In short, we need an overarching understanding of things in order to be able to see the forest despite the many trees.
The knowledge of an overarching understanding, a kind of matrix.

Are traditional educational ideals becoming acceptable again?

Yes, I am convinced of that. Obtaining information Obtaining information is no longer an issue; the decisive factor is knowing what this information means and how it should be evaluated.

What else is important?

Creative, artistic education and, above all, personal development. This does not mean that our children should all become artists. But the world of work will change in such a way that those who are able to find new approaches and develop new solutions will be successful. Social skills, i.e. motivating people in teams or getting involved in them, will also be important. And you certainly need to be able to do more than just fulfil a task repetitively. Because machines will take over.

«Developing their own talents is becoming increasingly important for children.»

Georges T. Roos, futurologist

What about self-competence?

We already live in a multi-option society. In future, it will be even easier to get lost in all the options on offer because there will be even more options. This is precisely why it is important to be able to say no and have a certain amount of self-direction. Because in the long term, you can't live with options, you have to choose one, even if this makes you «guilty» of all the options you don't choose. Nevertheless, there is no alternative to the choice.

Does this also mean that the demands on a child's personal development are increasing?

Yes, developing your personality and your own talents is becoming increasingly important. Is the school taking over? We are seeing an increasing pedagogisation of childhood. The idea that a child can jump around in the woods as soon as school is out is already pure romanticism. Childhood is becoming increasingly pedagogised. The acquisition of skills is already being planned in pre-school.

And who is responsible for this? The teaching staff?

I believe that there will be a further differentiation of professionals involved in education and training - a logical, not entirely unproblematic consequence. The problem with this is that there is an increasingly narrow grid, which is normal. The narrower the grid, the greater the likelihood of falling outside it.

«The role of the father who only looks after his children in the evenings or at weekends is becoming less and less attractive»

Georges T. Roos, futurologist

Will women have it a little easier in future?

A tricky question! I am of the opinion that women's self-confidence will increase as a result of the changed social situation. But not every disadvantage is the fault of the structures. Men also experience resistance and obstacles when they want to get to the top. If you want to be successful, you need determination - this applies to both men and women. Role models can be helpful here.

For example?

I recently read a portrait of Nadja Capus in a newspaper. I was impressed. She is a professor of criminal law in Basel and has five children with the writer Alex Capus.

And male role models? Modern men largely lack role models - and this creates role conflicts.

I don't know a single man who doesn't have a strong emotional relationship with his children, or at least wants one. Ultimately, however, there are few who say that in the next three years, as long as my children are still so small, I will only work 60, 70 or 80 per cent. It may help to realise that this is only one phase of life. A father is definitely missing out if he only sees his children sleeping. So we not only need practical facilities, but also men who dare to do something.

About the person:

Georges T. Roos is a recognised futurologist. He studied education, journalism and psychology, worked as a journalist and editorial director and as a member of the management team at the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute. Today he owns his own futurology institute in Lucerne. www.kultinno.ch